First, thank you to all the candidates that ran this year.
Running for office is no small task.
It’s an uphill battle running as a Republican in Northern Virginia. As candidates, you know the odds. And you put your jobs and your families on hold to earn 10%, 15%, maybe even 20% of the vote.
Your efforts brought a much-needed alternative to one-party rule in Northern Virginia and allowed us to showcase the values that make the Republican party great.
To all those who ran, we say THANK YOU!
Election Results
The Democrats retained their majority in the Senate, 21 – 19, and re-gained control of the House of Delegates, 51 – 49.
While it’s not what we hoped for, I am very hopeful for our party’s future based on last Tuesday’s election results and the success of the Secure Your Vote Virginia initiative spearheaded by The Spirit of Virginia.
If you’re interested in the report from the Spirit of Virginia Chairman, Dave Rexrode, I encourage you to check out his analysis of the races here on X (formerly Twitter).
If you’re not an X user, I’ll recap it here for you.
- House Districts Performance: In the 10 targeted House districts where SYVV was implemented, there was a significant improvement in election performance. The program managed to reduce the vote deficit the candidates faced on Election Day by an average of 1,261 votes compared to 2022, which is a 49.5% reduction.
- Senate Districts Performance: Similarly, in the 7 targeted Senate districts where SYVV was run, there was noticeable improvement. The average reduction in the vote deficit compared to 2022 was 3,370 votes, amounting to a 51.7% decrease.
- Specific District Outcomes – Two Examples:
- HD57: David Owen won by a margin of 715 votes. A crucial factor in this victory was the turnaround in early voting performance. In 2022, the early vote was lost by 443 ballots, but in 2023, it was won by 613 votes, a net change that significantly contributed to the win.
- HD82: Kim Taylor was re-elected by a narrow margin of 75 votes. The SYVV program played a key role here by cutting the Election Day deficit by 605 votes, which was more than eight times her margin of victory.
- Overall Electoral Impact:
- On the House side, the scenario was slightly tighter, but in 8 out of the 10 races, GOP candidates outperformed their DEM opponents in turnout percentage.
- In the targeted Senate races, every Republican candidate achieved a higher percentage of the 2022 GOP vote than their opponents did of the 2022 DEM vote, averaging a 6.4% lead.
- In the targeted Senate races, every Republican candidate achieved a higher percentage of the 2022 GOP vote than their opponents did of the 2022 DEM vote, averaging a 6.4% lead.
- On the House side, the scenario was slightly tighter, but in 8 out of the 10 races, GOP candidates outperformed their DEM opponents in turnout percentage.
- Strategic Approach and Results:
- The program prioritized early and persistent voter engagement. As Glenn Youngkin emphasized, it was crucial to be active from the beginning to the end of the election process.
- Data was utilized to identify voters susceptible to voting early, who were then contacted frequently.
- In one notable district won by 75 votes, SYVV almost doubled the number of AB By-Mail GOP votes, increased GOP Early In-Person votes by 33%, and reduced the Election Day deficit by nearly 25%.
- Further Analysis and Future Implications:
- Detailed analysis is pending as more data becomes available. However, it’s evident that Republicans can succeed in mail and early in-person voting with proper effort.
- SYVV was instrumental in engaging low propensity Republicans, converting thousands into permanent AB voters, and creating a successful strategy for future GOP campaigns.
- With the 2024 elections in sight, the program’s impact in battleground congressional districts is notable. There are now thousands of Republicans prepared to vote ABEV (Absentee By-Mail and Early Voting), providing a substantial advantage for future GOP candidates.
- Glenn Youngkin has emphasized that the strategies used in SYVV are not proprietary and encourages all GOP candidates to learn from these tactics for future successes.
Andrew Loposser
Chairman, 8th District Republican Committee